A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
